Складывается такое ощущение, что арест активов и счетов российских олигархов — это месть за то, что они неверно информировали элиты стран пребывания о своём влиянии на российскую политику.
Классический российский олигарх почти всегда являлся неформальным каналом связи между властями страны фактического местопребывания и российским политическим руководством. Причём этот канал был двусторонним: в Москву летели сигналы о настроениях там, а за рубеж — информация о происходящем в коридорах власти в России.
Причём в последние годы работа таких каналов отличалась сильным искажением действительности. Говоря упрощённо, в Москву летели месседжи о том, что с западными элитами всё в порядке. А в Лондон — приукрашенная в выгодном для конкретного крупного бизнесмена ключе информация о том, что творится в Кремле.
До поры до времени такая ситуация была выгодна всем. В Лондоне полагали, что контролируют действия русских. В Москве были уверены, что знают настроения западных элит. А «олигархат канальной связи» прекрасно жил в своё удовольствие, занимаясь бизнесом и информационными играми.
Но, как говорится, история подкорректировала. Реальность настигла и обнаружилось, что система негласных каналов коммуникации на основе платформы крупного бизнеса оказалась симулякром. И теперь по обе стороны вновь опустившегося железного занавеса будут делаются выводы.
В условном Лондоне их уже сделали и заключаются они во внесудебной конфискации денег и имущества российского олигархата. В Москве пока всё в процессе, тут многое зависит от поведения конкретных олигархов. Тем, кто будет вести себя неправильно, грозит национализация. А остальным придётся сосредоточиться на работе в российской экономике.
В общем, ушла эпоха и пришла новая реальность. Кстати, не факт, что она будет хуже предыдущей. Она просто другая. Новые цели и задачи у государства, новая экономика, новый мир. Такое явление как российский олигархат в него больше не вписывается. Теперь его наследие будут изучать историки.
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Интересна именно связка между экономическим положением крупных бизнесменов и их предполагаемой ролью неформальных посредников. Если влияние на российскую политику было представлено зарубежным элитам неточно, последствия для активов могут объясняться не только санкционной логикой, но и разочарованием в таких каналах связи. Здесь особенно важна прозрачность: без различения личных контактов, публичных заявлений и реального политического веса легко принять предположение за установленный факт.
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